DeSantis at 9% in South Carolina Poll(?)
I’m not a great believer in polls, especially not this early in the political campaign, but they are out there and there seems to be a new one every day. The latest Monmouth University poll in South Carolina has Mr. Trump at 46%, Nikki Haley at 18%, Tim Scott at 10%, and Ron DeSantis at 9%. I find this a little strange.
Polls can be, have been, and are used as psychological ploys. 2016 is perhaps the best example. Hillary Clinton was, from the polls, way ahead of Donald Trump, and we were all urged that “the race is over, so get on Hillary’s bandwagon.” The polls were brought forth to support this cause, and of course, they were all wrong.
I can only speculate about this and use some anecdotal evidence to the contrary, but there does seem to me to be a concerted effort, certainly among Democrats, but also among a the not-insignificant, but not overwhelmingly dominant pro-Trump Republican faithful, to elevate and pronounce Mr. Trump as the certain victor, and indicate that Mr. DeSantis isn’t all that popular , anyway. In other words, a semi-psychological play here. Mr. Trump, the idea goes, is sure to be nominated, and Mr. DeSantis, “who has seen his political stock tumble since declaring his campaign earlier this year” (according to the article in which the poll above was reported) is on the way down, or at least, not much of a challenger. Every bit of that may be true. But I’m not convinced—yet.
As most of you know, I write for Townhall. I don’t (can’t) read every comment made to my articles, or to other contributors, but I do read some of them. And it seems to me that, while Mr. Trump does obviously have solid (sometimes belligerent and downright ugly support), Mr. DeSantis is extremely popular and probably the choice of most the commenters I read. Not all have expressed themselves, but of those who have, it appears to me that DeSantis is actually stronger than Trump. Again, that is anecdotal, and from only one limited source. But...9%? I have yet to read ANY Townhall commenter who has endorsed Nikki Haley or Tim Scott. Not one.
Of course, South Carolina is a bit of a weird state. Very Republican, but has also cursed us with RINOs like Lindsey Graham, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott. Native sons (or daughters) usually do better in their home states, of course, thus one would expect Haley and Scott to poll better in South Carolina than other states. But...9% for DeSantis? And have the people of South Carolina ever heard of Vivek Ramaswamy?
Maybe this poll is absolutely accurate, and Mr. DeSantis isn’t as popular as Townhall commenters make him seem (to me) to be. Again, Townhall is a limited source, but still, it is a very popular site for conservative Republicans. And maybe that is the key. Maybe there aren’t as many “base” conservatives as we think there are. Even Mr. Trump didn’t reach 50% in South Carolina. That’s not especially very good, either, for somebody who is supposedly running away with the nomination. He will obviously win South Carolina in the Presidential race, provided he is the nominee. But...46%?
The whole thing smells to me. This poll doesn’t encourage me to increase my trust in polls. I think I’ll just wait and see what happens. Kinda like I did in 2016.