(Author’s note: I recently submitted the article “What Are Trump’s Chances?”—it appeared a few days ago here on my substack—to Townhall and they rejected it for reasons they did not tell me. If they refuse to print one of my articles, they never tell me why, which I don’t especially appreciate; it would be nice to know why they didn’t like it so I might avoid the same problems in the future. But I was suspicious and thought I knew why. I sent this current article—which I personally think is an excellent article—to Townhall this morning and just received an email from them saying they weren’t going to publish it, either. I am now 100% sure I know why. Read the two articles and see if you can discern what they have in common, and why TH would reject them. To me, truth is truth is truth, and we don’t help anything if we avoid, ignore, or try to cover it up. I’ll keep writing, here, what I think, and sent some other stuff to TH that might be more in line with their current editorial policies. I thank you for your support. I don’t ask you to agree with everything I write; that isn’t the purpose. The purpose is to make you think, and I hope I can accomplish that on occasion. MKL)
We often like to say, “history repeats itself.” This is useful, but never absolute (I prefer to say “historians repeat themselves”). No two historical events are ever exactly the same, never arise from the precise same historical circumstances or environment, and thus can never be truly “repetitive.” However, there are certain eternal principles of action that, if continually repeated, will frequently produce similar results. If you beat your head against a wall every day, don’t be surprised if you end up with a headache every day. In this way, history can “repeat itself.”
We do see, in history, certain happenings that parallel each other. Some matters are alike in many respects, and can lead to similar outcomes. When we look at the 1980 Presidential election, and compare it with the upcoming 2024 election, we can perceive several resemblances that could give Republicans a measure of hope. I want to discuss a few of these “parallels,” but also, as a warning, mention a couple of decided differences. These parallels and differences make a concomitant result possible, but not certain by any means.
First, some parallels.
1. Carter and Biden—two of the worst Presidents in American history. Historians like to take “polls” and “rank” the Presidents as to who the great, the mediocre, and the failures were. Since most historians are liberals, their polls are virtually worthless. My poll wouldn’t look anything like any Harvard history professor’s. By every possible, intelligent standard, Jimmy Carter was a failure as President of the United States, domestically and internationally. Joe Biden has been the same. America has had 46 Presidents, and they should both be at, or very near, the bottom on the “greatness” scale.
So, in both 1980 and 2024, we have two failed Presidents desiring a second term; it is, of course, not guaranteed yet that Democrats will give Biden that opportunity. But he wants it, for sure. These two election years have that in common.
2. Perceived American weakness abroad, economic malaise at home. Nobody around the world fears Joe Biden, indeed, he is being mocked in many places. The world is not a safer place today than it was in 2021 when he became President. And, concomitantly, the world was not more secure in 1980 than it was in 1977 when Jimmy Carter was inaugurated. The Iranian hostage crisis made Carter look weak, and Americans didn’t like it. Biden hasn’t solved any international disturbances, and his open border policy is beginning to irritate even some of his friends. Domestically, Biden is trying to tout his “low unemployment rate” and “GDP” growth, but the numbers are being skewed, and middle-class Americans sense and know the economy is not good. And that it’s Biden’s fault. The parallels here to Carter’s “stagflation” in 1980 are unmistakable.
3. The Republicans are nominating a “conservative,” pro-American candidate. Ronald Reagan was a true conservative, of this there is no doubt. Donald Trump says many of the right things that have gotten the Republican “base” excited about his candidacy again.
So, a distinct “parallel”—a failed, weak liberal Democratic President against a feisty, conservative pro-American Republican. 1980 and 2024. Reagan won in a landslide. Let’s hope history repeats itself in that way.
But there are a couple of serious “non-parallels” that need to be mentioned.
1. America isn’t the same country in 2024 that it was in 1980. The leftward drift of the nation in the last 40 years is unmistakable. There are things happening today that we never even dreamed of in 1980, and would never have been tolerated, even by Democrats: same-sex marriage, child mutilation, pedophilia, transgenderism, open borders—and a host of other anti-Christian and anti-American activities. These are staples of the Democratic Party now; they certainly were NOT in 1980. Obviously, America has moved much farther into hedonism in the last 40 years. This year’s election is being held in a far different environment, nation-wide, than the 1980 election. Even Ronald Reagan would have difficulty getting elected in this current moral and anti-American climate.
2. And Donal Trump is not Ronal Reagan. Trump certainly preaches the same pro-American message that Reagan did, and tries to make some obeisance to moral conservatives—just as Reagan did. But Reagan was liked, personally, by all Republicans and by most Americans. Yes, there were indeed countless liberals (like Dan Rather) who drooled their hatred of Reagan everywhere. But Reagan had a knack for deflecting them, often humorously, though kindly, making fools of them. Trump is hated far and wide, and even by many in his own party. He has none of Reagan’s “aw, shucks” charisma that charmed even many of his enemies.
Part of Trump’s problem is simply his narcissistic personality. Reagan’s “11th Commandment”—“Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican”—it totally ignored by Trump, and not wisely so. He is the leader of the Republican Party, and leaders must unite, not divide. Trump shows no talent for that, or even inclination to do so. Certainly it is acceptable to point out policy weaknesses in opponents, but it is NOT acceptable to call a fellow Republican, the best governor in America, a “son of a b***h”, or a primary opponent, whose support will be needed later, “braindead” and a “birdbrain.” I don’t remember Reagan ever doing that, but it’s what we live with now with Trump. Politics is truly a horribly dirty business, but there must be some limit as to how far into the gutter a decent person will go. I’ve seen no limits with Donald Trump. Ronald Reagan had them.
So, we do have a “conservative,” “pro-American” candidate running against a miserably failing leftist President. That combination, in 1980, led to 12 years of Republican Presidencies. Let’s hope that parallel holds up. But it IS a different country now, and our candidate is, in certain crucial ways, different from our 1980 candidate.
How is history going to handle this one?