The Winner Will Be the Person Who is Hated the Least
This isn’t the way to run a great nation. But, presently, it appears to be the direction America is headed next year: offering the people a choice between two men, both of whom are despised by a huge number of citizens, but one of whom will be elected President. This is nothing but a recipe for continued division, fractionalization, and weakening of the United States, both inwardly and in world affairs.
In 2024, the Democratic candidate for President (right now Biden) and the Republican nominee (currently Trump is ahead) will both receive at least 40% of the popular vote. That is almost an historical certainty. Several weeks ago, I wrote an column entitled “The 40-40-20 Rule” where I provided historical evidence from the last 100 years which demonstrates that, in nearly every Presidential election, the Democrat received at least 40% of the popular vote, and likewise the Republican. There were a few exceptions, but (except in 1924), no candidate, of either party, drew less than 36% of the peoples’ votes. So, the 40-40-20 rule is basically unassailable, historically.
Given this, assuming Trump vs. Biden next year, Mr. Trump will receive 40% support and Biden will do the same. That means the 20% left over will decide who the next President will be. That isn’t an insubstantial number of people. The current, legal population of the United States is approximately 340 million. 20% of that is 68 million. Now, many of that latter number are children, of course, who cannot vote, but we are still talking about tens of millions of voters who, if they don’t stay home out of disgust or apathy, will (mostly) vote for either the Republican or Democratic candidate. And, frankly, “disgust”—if not downright revulsion—describes the feelings of way too many Americans right now.
Donald Trump does have an exceptionally loyal following, people who love the man because of his perceived pro-American stance. Go to one of his rallies. The enthusiasm is genuine. Many millions of Americans really adore him and want him in the White House again. Unfortunately, most of those people are in the 40% GOP number who would vote for any acceptable Republican, they just prefer Trump now. It is impossible to determine, at present, how many of those genuinely enthusiastic Trump supporters are among the 20% who are not necessarily Republicans. Probably not many.
On the other hand, Joe Biden inspires nobody, not even Democrats, and he never has. Go back to 2020. When he did venture out of his basement to campaign, there was never any unaffected love and devotion to him. He received his first 40% of the vote simply because he was a Democrat. Many, many others voted for him because he wasn’t Donald Trump. How many fraudulent votes Biden garnered which enabled him to obtain the Presidency will probably never be known. But nobody, even Democrats, were/are genuinely enthralled with Joe Biden. Most people who vote for him next year will do so because he has a (D) after his name, and the name before the (D) is probably either unknown or totally irrelevant. They will vote Democrat regardless of who is running for whatever office. But there are many others who will vote for Joe Biden because his name isn’t Donald Trump. Hatred (a very strong word, I admit, but, when directed towards Trump, is totally accurate) will cause numerous people to cast their vote for another candidate. It happened in 2020 and will happen again in 2024. Their dislike—or non-attachment—to Joe Biden is weaker than their utter repulsion of Donald Trump. That is a major issue Mr. Trump faces.
Trump, as noted, has a tremendously enthusiastic following, resembling that which Barack Obama initially inspired (but eventually lost). The great challenge Mr. Trump faces is to swing enough of the 20% in the middle into his camp, if not as fervent, devoted followers, at least as helping them realize he is a far superior choice to Joe Biden. But Trump has this knack for causing people to look at HIM, and not at what he wants to do for America. And people who vote because of that will go for Biden, or stay at home. I was a keen supporter of Trump in 2016, even during the primaries. He won the Presidency and started, more clearly, showing a rather unpalatable nature—arrogance, meanness, and caustic, unnecessary statements. It made me cringe; I don’t like rudeness and meanness, though strong words are occasionally necessary (even Jesus called the Pharisees “serpents” and a “brood of vipers”). I liked Trump’s actions as President so much, however, that I was 100% behind him in 2020, and will support him again in 2024 if he is the nominee. But that is because I am a diehard conservative who loves America.
The “non-diehard” 20% don’t think like I do, and the “mean tweets” etc., cost Trump countless votes in 2020 he could ill afford to lose in a close election. Given the job he had done for America (pre-Wuhan), the election of 2020 should never have been close enough for Democrats to steal (compare 1984). But it was close, too close, and Trump isn’t President now. It is very possible that the almost-as-unlikeable Biden, through his utter incompetence and disastrous policies, will drive many of the non-Trump voters of 2020 back onto Mr. Trump’s wagon. That could happen. But that brings me full circle to the title of this article: the winner next year will be the person who is hated the least. That is a terrible way to choose the leader of the free world and bodes absolutely nothing good for the country’s currently divided condition.
Let’s hope Mr. Trump can, if the Republican faithful truly want him as their nominee, positively swing the 20% in his direction. If he can’t, Republicans better find a candidate who can or we are going to have four more years of Biden or an equally horrible Democrat.