Well, in one sense, Donald Trump has a 50-50 chance of being the next President—he either will or he won’t—but we deserve a little better analysis than that. Frankly, it is a complicated question, and it is impossible to quantify (beyond 50-50). There are tons of factors involved, including—and probably the most important being—future events over the next several months that could shift the balance one way or another. Right now, as I write this, I am still skeptical about Trump’s chances, but I am also more optimistic than I was a few weeks ago when I gave him very little hope. Under Joe Biden, the country is rapidly degenerating into a serious condition of division and turmoil, and the election will be decided by how many people in America finally wake up and realize that.
But presently, Trump still must be considered the underdog. Permit me to explain why.
Recently, in a Fox News interview, Newt Gingrich postulated that Republicans will need to outvote Democrats by 5% in order for Trump to win. Newt was talking about something I have mentioned more than once—Trump must have a “cheat proof” margin to gain victory. Gingrich said, and he is no doubt correct, “to beat Donald Trump, these folks [Democrats] are going to vote early, they’re going to vote often, they’re going to cheat. They’re going to do everything they can.”
This is indisputable, and it’s something Republicans absolutely must plan for and overcome. The Democrats have been able to put in place a system where early voting, mainly mail-in voting, has given them a decided edge. In such voting, factors like checking voter ID, and even checking whether the voter is breathing or not, become easier to mask and manipulate, especially if those who are doing the checking are Democrats themselves. “They’re going to vote often,” Newt said. Yes, how many times will each Democrat in certain crucial states vote? Again, safeguards against such fraud are not currently in evidence in most places. Yes, the Democrats ARE going to cheat, and they ARE going to do everything they can to win. We saw that in 2020, and nothing has been effectively done to counter that since the previous election. It should have been the main concern Ronna McDaniel worked on in the last three years, but, of course, she did nothing of the sort.
So, Newt is correct. Republicans must “outvote” Democrats by a large margin (Newt said 5%, but there’s no way to truly quantify an exact amount). Trump must unite the Republican Party behind him, and he must be able to swing enough Independents to his side. Overcoming Democratic cheating, a political party whose leadership has absolutely no honor or moral integrity, will be Trump’s most pressing problem. The Democratic brass, including their mainstream media allies, will incessantly lie to “normal” Democrats, and those Democrats will believe them. They won’t be hard to convince because they already hate Trump’s guts. It’s a serious problem.
Yet, there are some indications that many American people are finally seeing the light. A recent Washington Post/University of Maryland poll found that 36 percent of American voters now believe that Biden was not legitimately elected President in 2020. That is a staggering number of people who believe Biden stole the election. Furthermore, a Heartland Institute study concluded that, if the 2020 election “had been conducted like every other national election has been over the past two centuries, where the vast majority of voters cast ballots in person rather than by mail, Donald Trump would have almost certainly been re-elected.” This is unprovable, of course, but is also hard to deny. It is also additional evidence of the massive amount of cheating done by Democrats to steal the 2020 election.
However, this study is further indication that, because the 2020 system is still largely in place, Republicans had better figure out a way to counter it or they are going to lose again. If early mail-in voting dominates the 2024 election, as it did in 2020, Trump will almost surely be defeated. Early, mail-in voting makes it very easy for Democrats to commit fraud, and they no doubt are counting on it again.
Gingrich is correct that massive numbers of Republicans will have to get involved and vote for Trump. Uniting the party is critical. His name on the ballot will inspire many Democrats, who might be disgruntled with Biden, to vote anyway, just because they have been taught to fear Trump so much. I don’t see how the +5% Republican voting edge Newt says they need to win is possible.
That means Trump must attract a strong majority of Independents. At the moment, that looks possible. Biden’s border crisis is hurting him enormously; if he doesn’t do something to mitigate that problem in the next few months, he is going to squander a lot of votes. Plus, the Democrats’ dishonorable judicial attacks on Trump seem to be helping the former President as well, creating a “sympathy vote” swing towards him. Hatred is no way to run a campaign or win a race, and the Democratic Party’s uncontrolled loathing of Trump might backfire on them. Hatred blinds a person, and that hatred in blinding many Democrats right now as to what their animosity is doing to them and Trump politically.
So, again, right now, mainly because of the current voting system in place that allows for massive Democratic corruption (remember, it only needs to be done in a few states), the odds are still against Trump winning. If the Dems dump the incompetent Biden, Trump loses his main “ace in the hole.” The border crisis and the economy are DJT’s other chief assets. Unpredictable future events can, and probably will, also influence the election. Don’t forget that the Chinese will help the Democrats, too, and maybe the Russians.
Trump can win. But currently, it’s still an uphill climb.