When Will Xi Jinping Invade Taiwan?
What will China do? Invade Taiwan? Go to war with the USA? There are all kinds of speculations now.
And I’ll tell you this from studying Chinese history and living there for ten years—absolutely nobody knows what those enigmatic hordes will do. Except it will involve a lot of lying, cheating, stealing, killing, and downright moral turpitude. That is communism, and not a little bit of Chinese culture and tradition. They would as soon stab you in the back as look at you, though I will say not everybody in China is bad.
With that caveat in mind, let me continue with some exploration.
There are many analysts who believe Xi Jinping will never invade Taiwan. It’s too risky. He (appears) all-powerful in China right now and he owns the American President, but if an invasion of Taiwan turned sour, he could be in trouble. These analysts argue that Xi will just continue to talk about it, be the bully of Asia, and do nothing. Why ruin a good thing? This is a defensible position.
Others (Glenn Beck for one) have postulated that China and America will be at war within two years. I have seen that idea is other locations as well.
I do believe an invasion of Taiwan is more likely—but not a given—than a war with America, at least in the foreseeable future (say, within 5 years). Let me limit my comments here to a possible PRC invasion of Taiwan. As America does need a policy for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, it is a matter worth considering.
Xi won’t invade Taiwan because of necessity; Taiwan isn’t hurting him. Oh, he’d like to have their economy, but doesn’t really need it. His people don’t care. They all think Taiwan is already part of China so why go to war over it?
Xi will invade because of hubris. Taiwan’s “independent” existence can be perceived as a threat to China’s unquestioned dominance of Asia; to Xi, Taiwan’s continued independence could make China look “weak.” He can’t allow that, of course. Taiwan will not rejoin China voluntarily. So, the country will have to be forced back into the fold. But, when?
Xi wants to make sure a Democrat is elected President in 2024, preferably Biden, but any weak, vapid Democrat will do. There is already talk of China interfering in next year’s election to ensure a Biden victory. The Democrats have shown themselves pro-China, especially Biden; why would Xi want a change? He doesn’t, believe me.
How to ensure a Biden/Democrat victory (beside hacking voting machines)? A Taiwan invasion might be helpful. Biden has already said he would support Taiwan, and a “show of strength” could help him. Xi might wait until spring or summer, 2024, to launch his attack. This would give Biden time to “look strong,” but not enough time to decisively influence the outcome of the war.
American aid wouldn’t be conclusive in a China-Taiwan war, but it would help Taiwan—and drain more from America’s already weakening military and economy. That’s a risk Xi would probably be willing to take to ensure Biden in power another four years.
It is a gamble, though. If Biden looks bad, as he has so far in every foreign policy venture of his administration, it might swing the election against him. Xi turned the Wuhan virus loose at the optimal time, when it would most hurt Trump. That was no doubt a major reason for releasing the virus in the first place. He was able to accomplish some major goals—e.g., the defeat of Trump, the oppression of Hong Kong, weakening Western economies—while the world was reeling over Covid. The crisis certainly damaged Trump. A similar crisis (looking bad in a China-Taiwan war) could sting Biden.
So, Xi does face a dilemma. He needs a weak Biden (or Democrat) in order to invade Taiwan; yet, he wants to make sure Biden (Weak Democrat) remains in the White House beyond next year. Can he gamble waiting until 2025 to invade? Probably not; the Republicans might recapture the Presidency next year. Can he invade this year? That may be too early to do Biden any good, in fact, it could hurt him if the war was over (and Taiwan lost, even with American help) before the 2024 election. Xi must time his invasion very carefully, to ensure maximum advantage for himself and the CCP, always his optimal aim. That, and weakening America, which means a Biden in the White House.
Xi is currently in an extremely strong position in China, even though the country faces significant financial issues. But an early to mid-2024 invasion of Taiwan makes sense. Late 2023—which is almost upon us—isn’t out of the question. Like when he released the Wuhan virus (late 2019).
Frankly, I’m not even convinced by my arguments here because trying to guess what an inscrutable nation like China will do—and when—is almost utter folly. It isn’t difficult to predict that the next thing Joe Biden says and does will be unbelievably stupid, decadent, and incompetent. But China doesn’t work that way. We do know they have a goal—to become the dominant nation in the world—and a plan how to get there—by diluting America as much as possible. That means Democrats in power. Regarding China, being more specific than that is pure conjecture.
Taiwan is thumbing their nose at Xi and he certainly doesn’t like that. An invasion is distinctly possible, though not absolute, and America needs a policy in place to cover the contingency.
But only the inscrutable Chinese know for sure. What looks like it makes sense to us is probably the last thing they will do. Frankly, from experience, I can tell you that Chinese bureaucrats and leaders do a lot of stupid things, too. But there is one absolute about the Chinese—they cannot be trusted one inch.
So, my best prognostication is, yes, Xi will invade Taiwan, and he will do it before Biden leaves office, and at an optimum time to help Biden. Beyond that, it’s all a guess.