I didn’t get to see all of it, but I did see snippets, here and there, from both sides. I thought Mr. DeSantis was steady and right on in exposing some of the horrors of California under Gavin Newsom, things that most Americans may not be aware of. A couple of questions: how many people actually watched the debate, and can it help Mr. DeSantis in his quest for the Presidency?
I don’t know the answer to the first question, so I really can’t be sure of the answer to the second. I doubt he hurt himself at all, especially among his supporters. But did his performance gain him any new followers? Maybe, but then again, maybe not. Only time will answer that. He probably will not have converted any die-hard Democrats, and among Republicans who are unmovably attached to Mr. Trump, DeSantis probably didn’t persuade many of them, either, to join his camp. How many “undecideds” remain, and how many watched this debate...well, again, we may not know that answer for awhile. We’ll have to wait and see if there is any movement in DeSantis’s direction.
The question that is the title of this post—who won the debate?—depends almost entirely on the opinions of the people who watched it. We must realize that at least 40% of the American population are solid members of the Democratic Party. So, to these people, it doesn’t really matter how many babies are killed, or how many children are mutilated without their parents’ knowledge, or how many people defecate on the streets—they don’t care. They are Democrats and they are going to vote Democratic regardless of what that party does. And while I say 40% of the American people are Democrats, that number surely is well over 50% in California. That is why Gavin Newsom is governor. That 40+% is going to say Newsom won the debate. He could have killed a baby on stage and they would say he had won. Their minds are made up and nothing will change them.
The same is true for many Republicans. About 40% of Americans are solidly Republicans. I get these 40% numbers from Presidential elections over the last 100 years. In nearly every election, at least 40% vote Democrat and 40% vote Republican. The 20% “in the middle” decide who the next President will be. So, the 40% Republicans will say DeSantis won the debate, regardless of what he might have said or done. And, from what I heard, he said or did nothing to hurt himself with these people.
The question thus is, how did the 20% “in the middle” (who watched the debate) decide? I’ve only seen two after-debate polls. One was from WFLA news in Florida. It had it DeSantis 53.6% to Newsom 46.4% (with almost 3,800 votes cast). Now, that’s not just a Florida poll, that’s nationwide because it is on Twitter. So, anyone, anywhere can vote. If it were Florida only, it would almost certainly be higher in DeSantis favor. And maybe it should be anyway. But it is what it is—DeSantis with a substantial lead.
I found the other poll I saw a little more intriguing. It was on The Drudge Report, which used to be known as solidly conservative, but has drifted more to the middle in recent years, so much so that many conservatives (including me) no longer even go there. I only did today because I saw something about the poll on Twitter, and decided to check for myself. As I write this (about 4 a.m. Friday morning, Eastern Standard time), the poll (with almost 22,000 votes cast so far), is DeSantis 63.34% and Newsom 36.66%. Given the fall-off in conservative support for Drudge, it’s hard for me to believe that is a totally conservative poll. But maybe it is. It doesn’t even have Newsom at 40%. Hard to figure this one. It might be that Drudge is still attracting mostly Republicans—RINOs—who are supporting their party candidate. That’s probably the best explanation. But I certainly can’t give an absolute one.
Anyway, take those two polls for whatever you think they are worth. From what I saw, Mr. DeSantis did an excellent job of exposing some of the horrors of Gavin Newsom’s California and Biden’s America, and Newsom knew it because he tried, several times, to interrupt or shout over Mr. DeSantis. That is a sign of weakness. Newsom doesn’t want the country to know what is going on in California. And I think that showed in the debate.
Well, if he doesn’t, he better not run for President against Ron DeSantis. It doesn’t look like that is going to happen in 2024, but no decisions have been made yet, from either party.
There is one more item I’d like to mention. According to Daily Mail, “gamblers” think DeSantis won. His odds of winning the Presidency next year went from 53/1 to 48/1, while Newsom’s dropped from 10/1 to 12/1. Not good odds for either one, at the moment, but DeSantis went up and Newsom went down.
It seems fairly clear that Mr. DeSantis was the winner of the debate. But I doubt the DNC would agree. At least, not publicly.